2.16: web.pol/solar cycles affecting economy:
economyandmarkets`The Power of the Cycle:
Do sunspot cycles affect the stock markets?
. the sunspot cycle is reputed be 11 years;
but over the last hundred years,
the real average of this cycle is 10.3 years.
. months of research into sunspot cycles
has shown that 88% of the major crashes,
came in the down cycle,
and most of the rest came close on either side.
The worst crashes come around
the first 2.5 years after a peak;
and, the cycle peaked February 2014;
so the greatest crash should happen
between mid-2015 and late 2016.
[ consider too the 7-year shemitah cycle:
the next one is sept 2015 .]
A. L. Tchijevsky, a Russian professor of
Astronomy and Biological Physics,
constructed an "Index of Mass Human Excitability".
He compiled the histories of 72 countries
from 500 BC to 1922 AD.
After rating the most significant events,
Tchijevsky found that fully 80%
of the most significant human events,
mostly related to war and violence,
occurred during the 5 years or so of maximum sunspot activity.
Forty years after Tchijevsky presented his studies,
Edward R. Dewey examined his work in the light of new data
and found that there is a slight time lag
between peaks of human excitability and sunspots.
Peaks in human events precede peaks in solar indices!
Dewey attributed this time lag to the effect of latitude.
While the average sunspot activity occurs around
14 degrees latitude from the solar equator,
most cyclical events on Earth are located between
40-55 degree N. latitude.
Dewey eventually determined that the cause of this time lag
resides in the planetary magnetospheric forces
acting on the Sun and Earth. In addition,
conjunctions of Jupiter and Saturn exert an effect.
The entire sunspot cycle comprises several cycles
between 7 and 16 years in length (mostly 9-15 years),
of which the 11.2-year cycle is dominant.
. The number of historical events increases to
a maximum concurrently with the maxima of the sunspot cycle.
The synchronic peaking of the universal cycle of
military and social activity
occurs 9 times in each century.
Each cycle occurs in four phases in which
the number of historical events in
each and all cycles, on the average,
are distributed in direct dependence upon
periodic fluctuations in solar activity.
. In Phase 1 (3 years of minimum excitation, 1997-1999),
the masses are indifferent to politics and militarism,
being generally peaceful and tolerant.
and autocracy and minority rule increases.
. In Phase 2 (2 years of increasing excitation, 2000-2001),
the masses unite under new leaders, alliances, organizations,
growth programs, and new ideas.
. In Phase 3 (3 years of maximum excitation, 2002-2004),
the principal period of every cycle, is one of
great achievements, information exchange,
and psychomotoric pandemics such as insanity,
revolution, war, and pathological epidemics.
. In Phase 4 (3 years of decreasing excitement, 2005-2007),
tends toward political apathy
and increased scientific and creative activity.
Four out of the last five major depressions
have followed in the wake of maximum sunspot activity.
Generally, the more active the sunspots,
the more bullish the market.
In the ‘Preliminary Remarks’ to the book
Georges Lakhovsky`The Secret of Life,
Professor d’Arsonval quotes Dr. George Crile:
"It is clear that solar or cosmic radiation
produces the electrical current
which operates adaptively the organism as a whole,
producing memory, reason, imagination, emotion,
the special senses, ... ".
Two Danish meteorologists,
Svensmark and Friis-Christensen
have found a rather striking correlation
between the length of the solar spot cycle
and the temperature on the Northern Hemisphere
(The Southern hemisphere was not considered).
The working hypothesis to explain this linkage
is that the level of cosmic radiation
had an influence on cloud formation in the atmosphere.
When the Sun is active
the level of cosmic radiation is lower
(the solar wind, and its accompanying magnetic field,
hinders high energy particles from
reaching the inner solar system).
A lower level of cosmic radiation leads to less cloud formation.
So, the claim is: An active sun leads to
less clouds and a higher temperature.
In addition they report that a shorter solar spot cycle
coincides with a more active sun.
This correlation is illustrated with impressive graphs
with almost perfect fits.