7.19: news.phy/geo/global warming theory is disputed by some scientists:
. I think the point of the global warming theory,
is that even though there is insufficient data to support it,
there's a chance the theory is correct,
and if we don't act now before the data is in,
we will find it is too late to act.
. many of the following scientists are skeptics,
but one argument I don't hear from them,
is that severe global warming has happened
many times in the past [geology.utah.gov]
and thus it's due to something beyond our control.
transcript of a program broadcast on Channel 4 (UK) in 1990:
PROF. RICHARD LINDZEN
(Professor of Dynamic Meteorology,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Boston, USA)
PROF. REGINALD NEWELL
(Professor of Meteorology, MIT, Boston, USA)
PROF TOM WIGLEY (Head of Climatic Research Unit,
University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK)
DR ROBERT BALLING
(Director of the Laboratory of Climatology,
Arizona State University, Phoenix, USA)
DR ROY SPENCER
(Physicist, NASA Marshall Space Flight Centre,
University of Alabama, Huntsville):
DR SHERWOOD IDSO (Scientist,
United States Water Conservation Laboratories,
Phoenix, Arizona, USA):
DR STEPHEN SCHNEIDER
(Greenhouse theorist and modeller
National Centre for Atmospheric Research,
Boulder, Colorado, USA)
DR DAVE AUBREY
(Director of the Coastal Research Centre,
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute,
DR JULIAN PAREN (Scientist,
British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK)
DR JOHN MITCHELL
(Modeller, Meteorological Office,
(Head of Atmospheric Physics Group, UMIST,
DR JOHN HOUGHTON
(Chief Executive of The Meteorological Office,
PROF. REGINALD NEWELL:
I was warned when I wrote my first paper which discussed
the difference between the climate models
and some figures I was looking at for the Tropics
that it would be very difficult and
my funding would probably be cut.
In fact it has been cut.
INTERVIEWER: Did you believe that at the time?
PROF. REGINALD NEWELL: No, I thought that
the system was so straightforward and honest
- that bringing in a new perspective to the whole thing
which I thought I did in 1979
would be considered to be a positive thing:
people could hear both sides of the argument
and then have a debate.
DR ROBERT BALLING:
We have to be careful when we
look at people who say they have detected global warming
because what they may have detected is urban warming.
DR DAVE AUBREY:
No, you can't say unambiguously exactly how much
the ocean has risen over the entire globe.
Some tide gauge stations show sea level
rising over long periods of time,
others show sea level falling.
The problem is that the land is also moving up and down
- in some places it subsides fairly fast.
You are therefore measuring sea level against another level
which is also moving up and down
so you are left with a lot of uncertainty.
If you look at the British Isles
you see the same thing in a small portion:
in the northern part of the British Isles
the sea level is falling,
in the southern part the sea level is rising.
People have taken the average from
different stations and different periods
and come up with different answers.
In effect, you can come up with any answer you want.
PROF. TOM WIGLEY:
What we know about the greenhouse effect
is not just based on the data.
The data is the ultimate way of proving
whether the models are right or wrong
but because of the natural variability of the system
we cannot say yes or no.
mini ice age predicted from solar activity:
iflscience`We Could Be Heading For A Mini Ice Age In 2030
. the scientists mapped the movement of solar fluid
that moves in roughly 11-year cycles,
which correspond to weather cycles on Earth.
Around the year 2022 (labeled cycle 25),
a pair of waves will be moving to the
Northern and Southern Hemispheres of the Sun,
getting slowly out of sync and reducing solar activity
– and thus our warm weather.
"In cycle 26, the two waves exactly mirror each other
– peaking at the same time
but in opposite hemispheres of the Sun.
Their interaction will be disruptive,
or they will nearly cancel each other.
We predict that this will lead to the properties of
a 'Maunder minimum'," said Zharkova.
The Maunder minimum was a 70-year period between 1645 and 1715.
The Sun produced barely any sunspots
and the Earth experienced a mini ice age.
. our weather may also depend upon our magnetosphere,
as a weakening of it can pull the thermosphere
closer to earth where the atmosphere is more dense
thus causing more heat from the sun's charged particles.
. the magnetosphere is getting weaker,
so we can make better use of the sun .