post- #2012 #collapse needs Mormonism #Romney:
summary:
global economic collapse is likely:
. capitalism and overpopulation. it's illuminating that republicans chose
are embraced in a vicious cycle
that is building unstable comlexity .
. pop'growth causes debt that is healed by
the increasing efficiencies of capitalism;
conversely, pop'growth empowers capitalism
by lowering labor wages
and increasing the number of sales
allowing for slimmer margins .
. but capitalism is a cruel master
eventually serving only capitalists
by causing high unemployment
and even endangering itself
by being primarily incentivized by profit
which promotes destabilizing technologies:
# domino-effect vulnerable banking
# brittle just-in-time production .
. this combination can cause
very quick collapses
as a failure to finance food production,
then causes fear of food shortages
resulting in runs on food stores
that empty them within hours .
Romney for the 2012 usa presidency:
the icon of globalized outsourcing
and rising local unemployment;
he's notable for having been pro-choice
but then converting to pro-abstinence,
and he is politically challenged by being
associated with a "(cult) religion
that believes in long-term food storage .
. what the Romney choice tells us is that
Republican Christians are overpopulators,
and they are prepared warriors
-- may the best capitalist take all .
. remember the Romney lesson:
your free markets can rely on JIT food
(just-in-time production and distribution)
only because your community
does its own long-term food storage .
7.15: 10.2: news:
how global economic collapse could unfold:
Metis Risk Consulting`
Understanding, communicating and managing
large-scale systemic risk .With support from:
The Foundation for the Economics of Sustainability
"Designing systems for a changing world"
www.feasta.org
The green revolution of the 1950’s-70’s[12.24:
-- that enabled the more than doubling
of the human population --
was a macro-system that turned fossil fuels [oil]
into increased production of food through
fertilisers, pesticides and machinery.
It drove efficiencies through
interconnection and economies of scale,
and it drove de-localisation through
packaging, additives and transport.
. the globalised economy
-- our link to in-situ resources --
has become increasingly unstable.
. a large-scale and globalised
financial-banking-monetary crisis is likely
from two sources:
# deregulation + overpopulation:
. the outcome and management of
credit over-expansion and global imbalances
and the growing stresses in the
Eurozone and global banking system.
[. the domino-effect = interdependency:
the communism domino was from
strength acquired with each take-over
that enabled the next take-over .
. the capitalism domino could be
contagious banking failures that cause
world-wide production stoppages .]
# energy loss:
. with a peak in global oil production,
affordable, real-time production
will begin to decline in the next few years.
. we are depending solar when available,
but if we are hit by a galactic core flare-up,
then we might not have access to solar
because the weather becomes too harsh:
we needed an underground ark
and needed to have saved the oil and biofuel .]
Just-In-Time logistics (JIT):[. the Mormons require that all members
One of the major transformations in business
is that lean inventories and tight scheduling
means many businesses and industries hold hardly any stock.
It has been estimated that a modern industrial city
only has about 3 days of food
for its inhabitants in situ.
keep a year's supply of food stored .
. the 2012 presidential candidate
Mitt Romney is a Mormon .]
no general system diversity:[ it's ok to spend more than you make
. Whatever bank one cares to consider,
whatever form of country financing,
whatever monetary system
- they all share the same platform of
fiat money and credit-money creation
by fractional reserve banking.
The whole of the financial and economic system
is dependent upon credit dynamics and leverage
that helped to entrench the imbalances
that built up in the global economy
between countries running trade surpluses
and those absorbing ever-rising credit flows.
. system-wide debt stress
has grown with de-localisation,
complexity, and open connectivity .
. bank failure contagion is likely because of
# the connectivity between
retail banks, merchant banks
and the shadow banking system .
# lack of diversity due to
reliance on government bail-outs .
. systemic failure is likely because of:
# debt deflation:
resulting from credit over-expansion.
# peak oil:
. more expensive energy causes
a contraction of the economy .
. a credit-dependent banking system
depends upon an expanding economy
only if the future holds for you
making more than you spend later;
but making more depends on cheaper inputs
all of which depend on cheaper energy .
. the business solution has been to
cut the expense of hiring humans,
but governments still have to care for humans
by redistributing the savings of the wealthy
or reducing population size .
. a fatal flaw in the current system
is a ban on population control:
the unemployed still breed,
and the gov still pays for more prisons
if not more welfare .
. replacing oil with renewable energy
is like storing a year's worth of food:
you'll have time to think about
how to deal with overpopulation .]
[. banks are important to food because
most food is produced by Big Business
which relies on Big short-term loans .]
technical details:
Adam Smith’s invisible hand at work:
an example of self-organisation
in a complex non-equilibrium system.
In particular,
the globalised economy is an example of
a complex adaptive system (CAS).
economic activity as thermodynamics:
. work is the transformation of
exergy (low entropy energy)
into higher entropy heat .
This work is the basis of GWP.
GWP growth consequently requires
increasing energy flows .
Total world primary energy consumption
as MTon Oil (millions of tons of oil equivalent)
related to $GWP (Gross World Product
in Geary-Khamis dollars):
1965 .. 2009:
3,500 ..11,500 MTon Oil:
10 .. 60 trillion $GWP
-- keep in mind though,
it is not energy that produces GWP,
but the amount of it converted into useful work.
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